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Tuesday, December 4, 2012
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Has North Korea learned its launch lessons?
HOUSTON?? North Korea has two things to prove to the world when it tries once again to put a satellite into orbit, as announced over the weekend. First, engineers have to prove that they've solved the technical problems that led to an embarrassing launch failure in April. Second, officials have to prove that their intentions are as peaceful as they say they are.
As hard as the first challenge is, the second one may be harder.
Some observers have referred to this month's scheduled launch as a test for a long-range missile capable of hitting the United States, but this weekend's statement from Pyongyang was explicit: The North Koreans say they are simply trying again to put a satellite into orbit.
Story: North Korea sets midmonth timeframe for rocket launchThe mission has been portrayed as a do-over for April's launch of the Unha rocket and Kwangmyongsong satellite. The launch will once again take place at the Sohae Satellite Launch Station, where our NBC News team and other foreign journalists were given a pre-launch tour. Once again, the rocket is due to fly almost due south, putting the satellite in a polar orbit, according to warnings posted for fliers and mariners in the projected impact zone.
This time, however, the North Koreans are hoping to avoid premature impact. In April, the first stage of the three-stage Unha rocket disintegrated near the end of its two-minute thrusting phase, with the debris plunging into shallow waters west of the South Korean coastline.
Good news, bad news
From the North Koreans' perspective, the good news is that the first stage worked properly on at least two earlier launches, where upper stages then failed. So the design is probably fixable.
But clues as to the nature of the failure have been scanty. Any debris that was recovered is probably in South Korean (and perhaps U.S.) hands. The available telemetry about the rocket's operating parameters probably was not extensive.
The bad news is that North Korean engineers have had to struggle against a top-down obedience culture that probably led to the previous failures. Over the decades, space workers in the West and in Russia have learned a bitter lesson about spaceflight: that all engineers need to be empowered to say "wait" if they detect something not quite right. But when I met with the North Korean space program's leaders in April, that concept seemed alien to them.
Clues to April's disaster
The flight path might contain one clue, since the disintegration seemed to occur just past the point of maximum aerodynamic pressure on the rocket. Buffeting increases rapidly with speed, but also drops off as air thickness diminishes. There is a point where it is most severe, and a large number of bad things can happen in this phase.
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But there were worse pressures than the aerodynamic ones. The North Korean space team had been ordered to launch on a political schedule, with overtly ideological overtones. In such an environment, small errors can slip by, unflagged, by fearful workers hoping for the best. We can't tell from here the degree to which such a pervasive attitude allowed flaws to remain unfixed. The problem may be that the North Koreans can't, either.
I saw no indications from the interviews and discussions in April that they were even aware of the potential for problems. Everything else in their culture obeys the commands of the Great Leader ? so why shouldn't rockets, too?
That attitude explains the absolutely blank astonishment with which our escorts responded to the news, relayed to us by colleagues overseas, that the April 13 launch had occurred, and quickly failed. We might as well have told them that space aliens had taken over all the world's capitals, or that the dead had risen and zombie armies were on the march. They were wide-eyed with the inability to form a rational response.
From the moment the rocket had been launched ? in secret, despite a repeated promise that we would be allowed to "observe" the liftoff ? none of the North Koreans dealing with us ever mentioned it again. They didn't even acknowledge to us that it had failed.
It was as if somebody had zapped them all with some little flashy thing that erased all memory of us ever being invited to observe the rocket. Rocket? What rocket? Surely we were all here for their centenary celebration of Kim Il Sung's birth!
Can they prove peacefulness?
And that raises the second critical unknown that needs repair. Can the North Koreans really demonstrate what they had invited us in for last April: that the aim of the launch is merely to put a peaceful satellite into orbit, with no military significance.
In April, our hosts showed us a lot of stuff ? but nothing really critical to the issue of military versus civilian use. They showed us what they said was a satellite to be carried by the rocket, which they also showed us. But they never showed us the satellite being transported to the launch pad and mounted on the rocket. They never even showed pictures or video of that process, or what really was under the nose cone when the rocket lifted off. When challenged directly, they promised to do so. Then they showed us nothing.
The nose cone was large enough to have carried other small objects besides the satellite, and the most worrisome alternative payload was a "re-entry vehicle," or RV. This is the heat-shielded capsule necessary to let a warhead survive the fiery return into the atmosphere on its way to its target.
The presence of an RV is also the unambiguous signature of a weaponized rocket. So if that actually were the secret purpose of the entire rocket program, disguising it ? or even just adequately obscuring it ? for as long as possible would be a major diplomatic goal.
The only real evidence for what was under the nose cone last April is indirect. Since the South Koreans and friends scoured the sea bottom where the rocket's fragments fell, surely they would have publicly revealed evidence that such a device had been found ? even if only in fragments, assuming that a destruct charge was installed on the spacecraft.
Whom do you trust?
The North Koreans ended up providing no evidence that the satellite had been installed on the rocket, beyond their verbal assertions. But was there any other way to calibrate such assertions?
Some of the technical data we were given was legitimate. I had prepared some calibration tests of my own.
When I asked the Mission Control director how long it would be before the satellite's signals were first picked up in North Korea, he answered "about 11 hours." And because I had calculated that myself before leaving for North Korea, I knew the answer was correct.
Data screens we were shown at the Launch Control Center and the Mission Control Center omitted a lot of the plotted data, clearly for security reasons. But even without the ascent trajectory graph filled in, the display still had its X and Y axes fully labeled with actual numbers, which gave me confirmation of how high the initial launch leg would be. And a ground track plot showed the satellite passing across Antarctica with precise lat/long lines remaining. That provided precise information on the orbital inclination they were aiming for.
Other clues, however, suggested that the North Koreans were well-versed in deception. All of the space officials we met, from the escorts to the center directors, repeated the refrain that their first two satellites had successfully entered orbit. Nobody beyond the border of their own country believes that. Both rockets seem to have failed during the third stage of the ascent. Nothing was ever tracked in orbit, either by any national radar network or by worldwide private associations of visual and radio observers.
Yet when pressed, the officials refused to waver. They would reel off a list of alleged confirmations, that were known in the West as ambiguous clues that were later explained by other factors.
Finally, when pressed again by another journalist, the Mission Control director came up with a new explanation of why nobody else in the world had ever heard any radio signals that the satellites had allegedly been transmitting. To save power, he explained, the radio was turned on only over North Korea.
And then I knew for sure he was lying. Satellite signals aren't directed straight down at the land below, they are broadcast in all directions. Radio amateurs can pick them up via line-of-sight for thousands of kilometers in all directions ? and via atmospheric ducting, sporadically all over the world.
The explanation was fiction. It was contrary to 50 years of experience with satellite signals.
Known unknowns
So the new launch has a twin set of challenges, one technological and one political.
Can they show they have fixed the original problem that crashed the launch in April? Can they provide unambiguous and credible evidence that there is no secret military test on this flight?
So far, I've seen no indication to give me any confidence that they have the proper attitudes to succeed at either goal.
Dispatches from April's North Korea rocket tour:
NBC News space analyst James Oberg spent 22 years at NASA's Johnson Space Center as a Mission Control operator and an orbital designer. He is the author of several books on space history and space policy, including "Star-Crossed Orbits: Inside the U.S.-Russian Space Alliance."
? 2012 MSNBC Interactive.? Reprints
Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/50049457/ns/technology_and_science-space/
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Final Fantasy: The Pulse Legacy (General Discussion)
The fates have chosen those who must bear its will. Now, they must choose the fate of their world.
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Forum for completely Out of Character (OOC) discussion, based around whatever is happening In Character (IC). Discuss plans, storylines, and events; Recruit for your roleplaying game, or find a GM for your playergroup.Welcome to the general query thread for The Pulse Legacy. If you have any questions, or interest in joining, please state them here and I'll get back to you as soon as possible - meanwhile I will continue to work on the resources required.
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GeNeTiX - Member for 0 years
Hey, I'm thinking of joining, how much leniency are we having with the characters? Just follow one of the models, and everything else is up to us? Hopefully I'll be able to create a character tonight/tomorrow, things are getting a bit busy being end of semester and all.
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Catbus - Member for 2 years
flying monkey child wrote:Could I reserve character 3?
Certainly you can!
Catbus wrote:Hey, I'm thinking of joining, how much leniency are we having with the characters? Just follow one of the models, and everything else is up to us? Hopefully I'll be able to create a character tonight/tomorrow, things are getting a bit busy being end of semester and all.
I totally understand - I'm racking my brains trying to build Alice, Shadow and Markas' profiles tonight, as well as make the basic sheets for each character, which I can't do until a character is posted... Basically, the vast majority is up to you - I provide some key data that is going to be essential for the character in the storyline - such as a key Paradigm, motivation, maybe some links to another character, etc. The actual character appearance, personality, in-depths and all that, are up to you. Just be sure to tell me which character you would like to reserve, and I'll prioritise the threads I'm making.
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GeNeTiX - Member for 0 years
Can I reseve character six?
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OFortune - Member for 0 years
OFortune wrote:Can I reseve character six?
Sure thing - sorry it took so long... stupid post time limiters..
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GeNeTiX - Member for 0 years
Ah! Reservations are important I see! Guess I'm lucky no one went to reserve the character I had in mind... Character number 4, the pilot, if that's quite alright!
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Catbus - Member for 2 years
Catbus wrote:Ah! Reservations are important I see! Guess I'm lucky no one went to reserve the character I had in mind... Character number 4, the pilot, if that's quite alright!
Done and done.
Also, Character Six is now taken completely by 'OFortune' with their character, Oerba Lotamos Lia. A few minor spelling issues and all that, but your profile fits nicely. I also see you've gone with the canon Paradigms. :)
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GeNeTiX - Member for 0 years
Post a reply
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PFT: Packers may lose Nelson for Week 14
Getty ImagesFour weeks ago, Washington Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan sounded as though their season was over after saying the rest of the year would be spent evaluating their players.
Now the Redskins have won three straight games, all coming against the NFC East, to find themselves back on the edge of the playoff picture with five weeks to go.
Robert Griffin III completed 13 of 21 passes for 163 yards and a touchdown and running back Alfred Morris ran for 124 yards as the Redskins knocked off the New York Giants 17-16 Monday night. With the win, the Redskins are now just a game back of the Seattle Seahawks for the final Wild Card spot in the NFC.
The Redskins (6-6) took the early lead on one of the craziest scoring plays of the season. Griffin took off around left end out of a triple-option and had the ball jarred free while going to the ground. The ball hopped right into the waiting arms of Joshua Morgan, who ran in from 13 yards out to give Washington a 7-3 lead.
Lawrence Tynes missed a 43-yard field goal try wide left in the second quarter in a game ultimately decided by one point.
Eli Manning connected with Martellus Bennett for a 4-yard touchdown with 2:33 left in the first half. Both teams would add a field goal in a frantic final two minutes. Kai Forbath connected from 33 yards out for the Redskins and Tynes added a 40-yard field goal as time expired to give the Giants (7-5) a 13-10 lead heading into halftime.
Another Tynes field goal, a 35-yarder, extended the Giants lead to 16-10 late in the third quarter before Griffin and the Redskins responded.
Griffin engineered a 12-play, 86-yard drive to put the Redskins back on top. Griffin found Pierre Garcon for an 8-yard touchdown to cap the drive and give the Redskins a 17-16 lead. Garcon has added an extra dimension to the Redskins offense since returning from a foot injury that forced him to miss six games this season. Garcon had eight catches for 106 yards and a touchdown for the Redskins Monday night.
Washington forced the Giants to punt on fourth-and-16 in their own territory with four minutes to play but never got another chance with the football. Griffin and Alfred Morris moved the Redskins down field for three first downs to run out the clock and earn the victory.
Manning completed 20 of 33 passes for 280 yards and a touchdown and Ahmad Bradshaw carried 24 times for 103 yards for the Giants.
Morris had 22 carries for 124 yards and Griffin carries five times for 72 yards for Washington.
Giants right tackle Sean Locklear was carted off in the fourth quarter after having his right knee buckle when a Redskins player fell into him. He was replaced by David Diehl.
Source: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/12/03/nelson-reinjures-hamstring-status-unclear/related
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Monday, December 3, 2012
Sunday, December 2, 2012
The 1st Day of Christmas Celebration: These Gifts Are For the Birds ...
For the next 12 days we?ll be sharing some lensmaster generated gift guide lists for you to enjoy. These lists are hand picked by some of our best Celebrate?lensmasters.
Up first is Susan52?with her list:?These Gifts Are For the Birds. Also check out one of Susan?s Celebrate Gift Guide lenses:?Choose the Best Popcorn Popper! (Popcorn Popper Reviews).
From Susan?Think Christmas is for the birds? You might be onto something! Actually, birds play quite a role during the Christmas season. ?Three French hens, two turtle doves, and a partridge in a . . ? well, you get the idea. So, how about gifts for the birds? Indeed! If you are one of the millions who truly appreciate these amazing winged creatures, both wild and tame, then you?ll definitely enjoy the pages that we present here, each full of great gift ideas for your feathered friends.
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1. The Canary?s Christmas Stocking
There are lots of lenses about gifts for pets, and splendid ones too, but I didn?t think there were many about pet birds ? especially small ones. What suits a parrot or cockatiel won?t necessarily suit a canary or a zebra finch. So, as the proud host to fo?
2. Best Wooden Bird Houses
Wooden bird houses make the perfect nesting place for small birds. Birds love flying but they need a place to nest and a wooden bird house is a great nesting place. Install wooden bird houses in your garden or backyard and provide a place for those magnifi?
3. The Chicken Health Handbook
When I received my first flock of chickens from the neighbors in early 2007, I had no idea how to care for them. I had never known anyone who had chickens, so I had to do a lot of research to make certain I was raising them correctly! Raising chickens is e?
4. Pet Birds As Gifts
One of the most romantic gift ideas for Christmas or birthdays is giving a pet bird. We think of a child with a new budgie at Christmas, or a lonely retiree gifted with a new canary, or fluffy chicks or ducklings in an Easter basket, or a symbolic pair of?
5. Top Gifts for Finch Enthusiasts
I absolutely adore birds, and ever since I was a young boy my parents indulged my fascination with little finches and allowed me to keep these bright little birds. I started my hobby with zebra finches (see picture) and before long I had a host of birds in?
6. Gorgeous Handmade Bird Feeders
Want to give a unique gift that will keep on giving? These bird feeders are not only stunning works of art on their own, they will also attract a kinetic and natural element (the local bird life) once set up in the backyard. Perfect gifts for art and natur?
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Grand jury probing meningitis-linked pharmacy: newspaper
BOSTON (Reuters) - A grand jury is investigating the compounding pharmacy at the heart of a deadly meningitis outbreak, the Boston Globe reported on Saturday.
The grand jury has begun issuing subpoenas to people who worked for the New England Compounding Center, which closed after investigators determined it had produced the tainted injectible steroid that has killed 36 people, the newspaper reported, citing unnamed people who formerly worked for the company.
Grand jury investigations, which are conducted in secrecy, are a step prosecutors take before determining whether to press criminal charges.
Officials at the U.S. Attorney's office and NECC could not be reached for immediate comment on Saturday. The Globe reported that U.S. officials declined to comment.
After federal officials in October raided the Framingham, Massachusetts-based pharmacy, U.S. Attorney Carmen Ortiz confirmed her office was investigating the company.
U.S. District Court Judge Dennis Saylor, who is hearing the dozen civil lawsuits filed against NECC in federal court in Boston, said during a Wednesday hearing there may be a grand jury investigation into the company.
(Reporting By Scott Malone; Editing by Vicki Allen)
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/grand-jury-probing-meningitis-linked-pharmacy-newspaper-145148382.html
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